Developing · latest Tue 20 Oct 2026
Prediction markets meet the regulators
28 developmentssince 3 Jul 20266 outlets covered this story · 55 articlesevery development checked by a person
The story so far · 28 developments since 3 Jul 2026
Prediction-market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi grew rapidly while facing court rulings, state legislation and regulatory statements in the United States, the European Union and Asia.
Timeline at a glance
3 Jul 202612 Nov 2026
The full timeline
How we got here: each step is a development; the space between them shows the time between.
- 20 Oct 2026
Utah sues Kalshi and two Susquehanna trading firms, alleging an illegal gambling business in the state · 2 articles
On Tuesday 20 October 2026 Utah Attorney General Derek Brown sued five Kalshi companies and two Susquehanna trading firms, Susquehanna International Group and Susquehanna Government Products, alleging they ran an illegal gambling business in the state, The Block reported. Utah estimates Kalshi collected $30.6 million to $61.2 million in fees from Utah accounts through 19 October, and asks the court to block sports, election, politics, culture and 'mentions' contracts there and to order repayment and damages, The Block reported.
- 20 Oct 2026
The US defense secretary bars Pentagon staff from betting on nonpublic information, including on prediction markets · 1 article
In a memo sent on Tuesday 20 October 2026, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth barred all Pentagon personnel from financial transactions that use nonpublic information, classified or unclassified, including wagers on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, Cointelegraph reported. Cointelegraph quoted the memo: 'Our enemies watch movements in these markets.'
- 9 Oct 2026
The CFTC proposes defining event contracts as swaps and excludes casino-style wagers · 3 articles
On Friday 9 October 2026 the CFTC issued a proposed rule adding event contracts, including those on sports, politics, cultural and weather events, to the definition of a swap, and a companion interim final rule excluding sportsbook bets and casino-style games. Decrypt, Unchained and Cointelegraph reported a 30-day comment period for each after Federal Register publication and quoted Chairman Michael Selig: 'Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives.' Unchained noted the Third Circuit had found Kalshi's sports contracts to be swaps while the Ninth and Sixth Circuits found the opposite.
- 7 Oct 2026
The NFL files a brief urging the US Supreme Court to hear New Jersey's case against Kalshi · 2 articles
The NFL filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey's petition for Supreme Court review, arguing sports event contracts are not swaps and belong under state gambling law, Decrypt and Cointelegraph reported. Cointelegraph reported the filing as Wednesday 7 October 2026; Decrypt reported it as Thursday 8 October. Decrypt reported the league said the CFTC and operators had declined safeguards it requested, including a minimum trading age of 21; Cointelegraph reported 39 states and the District of Columbia also filed a supporting brief.
- 25 Sep 2026
The Sixth Circuit rules Ohio and Tennessee can enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi's sports contracts · 3 articles
On Friday 25 September 2026 a Sixth Circuit panel ruled that Kalshi had not shown its sports event contracts are swaps under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, so Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph and Unchained reported. Unchained reported the court upheld an Ohio judge's refusal to block the state's regulators and vacated an injunction that had barred Tennessee's. It is the second appeals court to rule against Kalshi.
- 24 Sep 2026
New York sues Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling operation; Polymarket sues the state in federal court · 3 articles
On Thursday 24 September 2026 New York Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul announced a petition in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan against QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, alleging an unlicensed gambling operation that lets 18- to 20-year-olds trade. Unchained and Cointelegraph reported the state seeks to bar Polymarket until licensed, plus restitution and treble penalties; Unchained, citing CNBC, reported Polymarket sued the state in federal court the same day, arguing states cannot regulate its contracts. Decrypt dated the announcement to Wednesday.
- 2 Sep 2026
Michigan's attorney general says a state court has granted a preliminary injunction barring Kalshi's sports contracts · 1 article
In a notice on Wednesday 2 September 2026 Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel said the Ingham County circuit court had granted a preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi from offering sports event contracts to state residents, with fines of up to $500,000 a day for violations, Cointelegraph reported. It follows a June temporary restraining order that the CFTC had directed Kalshi not to comply with. The date the court signed the order was not stated.
- 1 Sep 2026
New Jersey asks the US Supreme Court to decide whether states can regulate sports contracts on prediction markets · 3 articles
New Jersey's attorney general Jennifer Davenport and its gaming enforcement division petitioned the US Supreme Court over the state's enforcement against Kalshi, asking whether the Dodd-Frank Act preempted state regulation of sports bets offered on CFTC-registered markets. CoinDesk reported the filing as Tuesday 1 September 2026; Cointelegraph and Unchained reported it as Wednesday 2 September. Unchained reported it is the first such petition to reach the justices.
- 28 Aug 2026
The Ninth Circuit rules federal law likely does not stop Nevada from regulating Kalshi's sports contracts · 1 article
On Friday 28 August 2026 a Ninth Circuit panel ruled unanimously that the Commodity Exchange Act likely does not preempt Nevada's gaming regulations as applied to Kalshi's sports event contracts, finding the contracts were not swaps, CoinDesk reported, quoting the decision. CoinDesk reported the ruling goes the opposite way from the Third Circuit's April decision in Kalshi's case against New Jersey, leaving the appeals courts split.
- 26 Aug 2026
Connecticut sues Kalshi to enforce its order halting the company's sports contracts in the state · 1 article
By Wednesday 26 August 2026 Connecticut had sued Kalshi, asking a court to enforce the state's order halting its sports event contracts there, CoinDesk reported. Attorney General William Tong said in a statement that sports event contracts 'are no different than sports betting'. CoinDesk reported Kalshi said the state was singling it out, and that Kalshi's own suit against Connecticut is on appeal at the Second Circuit.
- 24 Jul 2026
The CFTC warns exchanges against template-style self-certifications for event contracts · 2 articles
On Friday 24 July 2026 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory, released as Staff Letter 26-22, cautioning designated contract markets against filing broad, template-style certifications that combine many contract variations into one submission. Unchained reported the letter as saying such filings limit the division's ability to judge whether an exchange has supplied the required information, explanation and analysis, including on settlement methodology and compliance. CoinDesk reported it as a reminder not to cut corners on far-ranging certifications.
- 22 Jul 2026
Polymarket says it will challenge France's website block, rejecting the gambling label · 2 articles
On 22 July 2026 Polymarket said it will challenge the order by France's Autorite nationale des jeux (ANJ), the national gambling regulator, requiring internet providers to block its website. Polymarket said it was 'surprised' by the decision because the block also cuts off users visiting only for information, and called the measure disproportionate. It rejected being classed as an unlicensed gambling operator, describing its markets as peer-to-peer financial instruments whose prices are set by traders, not by an operator taking the other side. The move follows the ANJ's 16 July block order.
- 20 Jul 2026
Washington court grants preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi's sports event contracts · 1 article
The Block reported that on 20 July 2026 Judge John McHale of King County Superior Court in Washington granted the state's motion for a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, writing that it "offers illegal gambling activities to Washington consumers" under state law and that the federal Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Washington. A Kalshi spokesperson told The Block that "states don't have jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets." The ruling parallels the jurisdiction-blocking moves against Polymarket in France, the Czech Republic and South Korea.
- 16 Jul 2026
Prediction markets hit a record monthly volume of about $50 billion during the World Cup · 2 articles
During the first month of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, prediction-market platforms recorded about $50 billion in monthly notional trading volume, an all-time high. CoinDesk reported Kalshi posted roughly $31 billion in June, with sports contracts about 85% of its trading, and Polymarket's international exchange about $10.8 billion. In a Crypto Industry Report published 16 July, CoinGecko put second-quarter notional volume at $113.8 billion and June's at $50.7 billion, with Kalshi near 58.9% share and Polymarket 30.2%. Both said the growth came despite broader crypto weakness.
- 16 Jul 2026
France orders internet service providers to block Polymarket · 2 articles
On 16 July 2026 the president of France's Autorite nationale des jeux (ANJ), the national gambling regulator, ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket, which it classified as an online gambling service operating without authorization in France. In a 17 July statement the ANJ said the platform lacks licensed-operator protections — stake limits, self-exclusion and identity checks — and that its real-time-odds homepage promotes unauthorized gambling. Polymarket did not comment, per CoinDesk. The order follows the Czech Republic's 13 July move and South Korea's review begun 6 July.
- 16 Jul 2026
A White House teleprompter operator is placed on leave amid CFTC talks over alleged Kalshi insider betting, ABC News reports · 1 article
ABC News reported that Gabriel Perez, a longtime White House teleprompter operator, was in negotiations with the CFTC over allegations that he used advance knowledge of President Trump's speeches to place bets on Kalshi. The White House said Perez was placed on paid administrative leave; a CFTC spokesperson would not confirm or deny an investigation.
- 14 Jul 2026
The CFTC orders Kalshi to honor prediction-market trades that a Michigan court had ordered cancelled · 3 articles
The CFTC stayed a KalshiEX emergency rule change and directed the exchange to settle open trades under its normal practices (Release 9267-26). An Ingham County Circuit Court judge had ordered on 29 June that trades placed by Michigan residents be cancelled and refunded. Chairman Michael S. Selig said a state cannot force a federally designated exchange to violate its obligations, and called cancelling executed trades an unprecedented step. Kalshi's Robert DeNault said on X that the orders left it in 'an impossible position', and that Kalshi had already unwound the trades as Michigan required.
- 13 Jul 2026
The Czech Republic moves to block Polymarket over unlicensed gambling · 1 article
The Czech Ministry of Finance's Department of Procedural Agendas and Gambling Regulation added Polymarket to the country's list of unauthorized internet games, a step that under Czech gambling law requires internet service providers to block access within 15 days. Jan Rehola, director of the Institute for the Regulation of Gambling, said the move 'is not about banning innovation' but about ensuring the same rules apply to everyone who offers betting for money. Polymarket did not comment in the report. The action follows South Korea's move on 6 July to weigh similar measures.
- 10 Jul 2026
Wall Street banks tighten internal rules on staff trading in prediction markets · 1 article
Cointelegraph reported that several Wall Street banks tightened their internal rules governing employee trading on prediction markets, amid concerns about the handling of non-public information.
- 10 Jul 2026
Polymarket files applications to offer regulated margin trading in the United States · 3 articles
Polymarket filed applications seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading to customers in the United States.
- 10 Jul 2026
North Carolina passes a bill recognizing CFTC authority over prediction markets · 2 articles
North Carolina lawmakers passed a bill recognizing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's federal regulatory authority over prediction markets.
- 9 Jul 2026
Hyperliquid and Phantom urge the CFTC not to treat onchain protocols as brokers · 3 articles
Hyperliquid's policy arm and the wallet developer Phantom publicly urged the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission not to apply broker and exchange registration rules to onchain protocols and DeFi developers. Three publications reported the request.
- 8 Jul 2026
Polymarket plans a US marketing push as it returns to the American market · 1 article
CoinDesk reported that Polymarket was preparing a United States marketing campaign as it re-entered the American market, four years after being barred from it.
- 8 Jul 2026
A federal judge denies Kalshi's bid to block New York gambling-law enforcement; Kalshi appeals the same day · 2 articles
A federal judge declined Kalshi’s request to block New York from enforcing its gambling law against the platform. Kalshi filed an appeal the same day.
- 7 Jul 2026
Traders sue Polymarket over the resolution of a market on a Strategy bitcoin sale · 3 articles
Two traders filed a lawsuit against Polymarket and its chief executive over how the platform resolved a market on whether Strategy had sold bitcoin.
- 6 Jul 2026
South Korea weighs action against Polymarket over gambling concerns · 1 article
South Korean authorities were reported to be considering corrective action against Polymarket, citing domestic gambling rules.
- 4 Jul 2026
Kalshi reports record June trading volume of more than $9 billion · 1 article
Kalshi's trading volume for June topped $9 billion, a record for the platform. Coverage attributed part of the increase to markets on the World Cup.
- 3 Jul 2026
ESMA says many prediction-market event contracts may already fall under the EU's retail binary-options ban · 4 articles
The European Securities and Markets Authority said that many prediction-market event contracts may already fall within the European Union's existing restrictions on the sale of binary options to retail investors.
Latest development · 20 Oct 2026
Courts and legal
Utah sues Kalshi and two Susquehanna trading firms, alleging an illegal gambling business in the state
On Tuesday 20 October 2026 Utah Attorney General Derek Brown sued five Kalshi companies and two Susquehanna trading firms, Susquehanna International Group and Susquehanna Government Products, alleging they ran an illegal gambling business in the state, The Block reported. Utah estimates Kalshi collected $30.6 million to $61.2 million in fees from Utah accounts through 19 October, and asks the court to block sports, election, politics, culture and 'mentions' contracts there and to order repayment and damages, The Block reported.
2 outlets reported it
- The BlockUtah likens Kalshi to a ‘back-alley gambling den’ in lawsuit naming Susquehanna firms ↗
- The DefiantUtah Sues Kalshi and Susquehanna Firms to Halt Alleged Illegal Betting ↗we could not open this article
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